Blog
Notes, essays, and field reports from the work.
AI adoption
AI agents17 min read
What I learned from Andrew Ng's Agentic AI course
A workflow in steps beats a single prompt, and the teams that build agents well are the ones that measure every step.
Field Guide18 min read
The Practical Guide to Generative AI
What it is, how it works, how to use it well, and how to adopt it responsibly
AI Adoption9 min read
The 2026 AI Adoption Playbook
What really matters when the tools stop mattering.
Macro thesis
Macro thesis18 min read
Why China controls rare earth magnets: the mine was never the moat
China's share of rare earth mining has fallen to about 69%, and it still makes 94% of the world's magnets, because the choke point is the separation chemistry after the mine.
Macro thesis15 min read
Rare earth companies outside China: who separates, who makes magnets
Outside China only five operations sell rare earth product at scale, and the largest American one now runs on a price set by the US government.
Macro thesis12 min read
Dysprosium and terbium: the heavy rare earths that decide electric motors
A neodymium magnet needs a little dysprosium or terbium to survive the heat inside an electric motor, and China refines over 99% of both.
Macro thesis9 min read
China's rare earth export controls: a dated timeline from 2025 to 2027
China's April 2025 license rule on 7 rare earths has never been paused, and everything that has been paused runs out within the next few months.
Macro thesis8 min read
Are rare earths rare? Why 17 elements take 1,000 steps to separate
Rare earths are about as common in the ground as copper, and what makes them scarce is the chemistry that pulls 17 nearly identical elements apart.
